Because he is McCain....
Well, in reality, Emory University, according to realclearpolitics.com, says that the Republican Party faces a "triple Whammy"
1.) an unpopular president (Bush's approval rating is lower than Nixon....LOWER THAN NIXON!)
2.)weak economy
3.)second-term election
all of these factors combined, according to Emory Univ., will guarantee a Democratic party win in November. A triple Whammy!
McCain won't win and Republicans are delusional if they think that McCain has a strong fighting chance.
According to the article on realclearpolitics.com:
"Abramowitz has tracked the effect of those variables [the triple whammy variables stated above] on the last 15 presidential elections and found that they accurately predicted the popular vote outcome in 14 and came close in the 15th.
The formula adds the incumbent president’s net approval rating (approval minus disapproval), the second-quarter election-year GDP growth rate multiplied by five (emphasizing the importance of the economy) and then (factoring in time-for-a-change sentiment) subtracts 25 points if the in-party is finishing a second term.
Bush’s net approval now stands at minus 40. The first-quarter growth rate was 0.6 percent and Bush is finishing eight years, meaning that this year’s electoral barometer currently stands at minus 62."
haha, -62. that's alot.
Does McCain have a chance?
No comments:
Post a Comment